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What is your economic assessment?
 We are sliding into a depression.
 We are in a depression.
 We are sliding into a double dip recession.
 We are on our way to recovery we just need more stimulus.
 

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Stan522's Blog
   
Captain Dave's Survival Center  
  Stan522, Carlsbad CA  
  2/23/2010 10:59:55 AM                          
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  Comments:  1
 
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I found this awhile back and have used it to help "prepare" for disasters. Thought I'd pass it along to my conservative friends out there in the world. There's a link to his website at the bottom.

Survival Risk Quotient: 72


Captain Dave's Survival Risk Quotient attempts to rank how close we are to an all-out global disaster, also know as TEOTWAWKI, or "the end of the world as we know it." 100 is TEOTWAWKI, 50 is September 10, 2001 and 0 is a peaceful world with no threats, or what it would have been like for Adam and Eve without the Serpent.

The quotient was revised on January 4, 2009 to reflect the global economic conditions, our socialist government, and external threats. Read our previous advice on surviving the economic downturn.

Predictions and Advice for surviving 2010

Here are Captain Dave's 2010 predictions and how you can prepare to weather the storms we may experience in 2010:

Prediction One: The economy will get worse, unemployment will rise, more people will lose their homes, and your buying power will deteriorate.

The economy is like a man poised on the brink of a cliff with one foot on solid ground and one foot stepping outward over a steep drop-off. The footing seems pretty solid, but once the weight shifts forward just a tiny bit, the economy will topple into a death spiral. When this shift takes place (This year? Three years? Maybe as long as five years?) and how far the fall will be are the real questions.

The economic news coverage in the major media often sounds good, as if we are in the midst of an economic recovery, but the fundamentals are still troubling. Sure, there are hopeful signs, but I predict that it will be a long time before most of us see an improvement in our personal economic situations. The so-called "green shoots" are going to wither because we are in the economic equivalent of a drought. There is just no liquidity to be had as every bank, company or individual with money is doing everything they can do hold on to it. This lack of liquidity is stifling consumer spending and business investment which are the most critical legs in the gross domestic product.

I also foresee a significant chance of a "double dip" recession in 2010. I believe we will see another financial crisis, leading to a wave of failures, collapses, closures, and bankruptcies. You can expect rising unemployment, rising prices, falling stock markets, more foreclosures, and panic in the government. That panic will lead to more ill-conceived stimulus spending and rescue packages that achieve little other than the waste of shrinking tax revenues and add to an unhealthy Federal deficit.

As a result of added stimulus and deficits, the dollar will continue to get weaker as overseas investors lose confidence in our ability to pay back our debts. They will turn up their nose and the dollar and diversify into other currencies as well as commodities and precious metals. (This is already happening, but will get worse in 2010.) Uncertainty and lack of confidence in the dollar will cause other countries to sell our debt, and these fire sale prices which will devalue the dollar even further.

This weakening of the dollar will drive up the cost (in dollars) of commodities and raw materials – including oil, steel, aluminum, copper and so forth -- as well as anything we import, including such basic products as food, clothing, household goods, and electronics. Food prices, which are heavily dependent on the cost of oil (for fertilizer and transportation), will also increase. In short, pretty much anything we buy will get more expensive. This will result in inflation, but the government will try to hide it by manipulating the CPI data. So you and I will feel inflation, but it will not be reported as such, at least not for several months.

As people have to spend more money on food and energy, they will have less to spend on discretionary spending, which creates a downward economic spiral that is self-perpetuating. The lack of discretionary spending will result in a falling sales and profits at most companies, which will lead to declining stock market values, store closures, more bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and a crisis in the commercial real estate market. The loss of jobs and rising unemployment will result in even more foreclosures, which will hurt the banking industry even more (see below for more.)

In short: I believe that the economic recovery bandied about by the mainstream media is wishful thinking and will not last. My advice is to use this time of apparent good news to prepare for another wave of bad economic news globally and especially in the U.S. and UK. If you were caught by surprise in 2008, don't repeat that mistake in 2010.

What you can do:

http://www.captaindaves.com/index.htm

   Comments on this article: return to list of blogs  
Comment by: TruckerMatt from Quincy CA
Posted at: 2/24/2010 12:29:40 AM


good post with abundant info.
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